Saturday, March 24, 2007

Google PageRank Prediction for Kumiko

I can't remember how did I stumbled upon Kumiko's blog – Kumiko's Cash Quest. But what I can sure is that after my first visit, I found her blog interesting and continued to visit as a regular visitor.

The first thing you will notice about Kumiko's blog is her pink-themed template. She even displays in her blog a pink colored dollar note with her face and blog name on it! She is quite transparent with her blog's earning and publish weekly and total earning of her blog. In her quest to increase the earning, she is in the middle of a campaign to increase Google PageRank and Technorati ranking. So she opened up a competition for other bloggers to correctly predict her blog PageRank. Click here for her post on the competition. It is said that earning from any given blog is directly proportional to its Google PageRank.

So now she is giving away thirty dollar to anyone who can correctly predict her PageRank. And the winner will have a chance to write a post on her blog too. A good opportunity for any bloggers.

So I'll take a chance and predict Kumiko's PageRank.

Who is Kumiko?

Before going into prediction, let's take a look at who Kumiko is. She is currently staying in Tokyo, Japan. Judging form the fact that her name is Kumiko, I can reasonable presume that she is Japanese girl. Unfortunately I couldn't locate her profile in her blog.

What is a PageRank?

And lets take a look at what a PageRank is -

PageRank relies on the uniquely democratic nature of the web by using its vast link structure as an indicator of an individual page's value. In essence, Google interprets a link from page A to page B as a vote, by page A, for page B. But, Google looks at more than the sheer volume of votes, or links a page receives; it also analyzes the page that casts the vote. Votes cast by pages that are themselves "important" weigh more heavily and help to make other pages "important."

Important, high-quality sites receive a higher PageRank, which Google remembers each time it conducts a search. Of course, important pages mean nothing to you if they don't match your query. So, Google combines PageRank with sophisticated text-matching techniques to find pages that are both important and relevant to your search. Google goes far beyond the number of times a term appears on a page and examines all aspects of the page's content (and the content of the pages linking to it) to determine if it's a good match for your query. [Source]

Furthermore -

.. a page can have a high PageRank if there are many pages that point to it, .. [Source]

... a page has high rank if the sum of the ranks of its backlinks is high. This covers both the case when a page has many backlinks and when a page has a few highly ranked backlinks. [Source]

The explanation from Google and academic papers from Standford University by Lawrence Page and Sergey Brin show that to get a higher page rank, the number of links pointing to a page is not enough, it must be pointed from pages with higher ranking too.

That means that to predict PageRake of a website, I must be able to know how many other websites are linking to it and the PageRank of the linking website. I can generally know the number of backlinks a blog receive from To know the quality of the links it receive, presumably I can say that the older a blog is, there are more chances of receiving high quality links.

Kumiko's Technorati Ranking

Enough of PageRank. Let's take a look at her Technorati ranking. It's at 6101 with 770 links from 483 blogs. Taking a clue from this number and looking at the ranking of other similar pages, Qmusings predicted Kumiko's PageRank as 5.

So what number should I pick as Kumiko's PageRank? 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 or 6?

Prediction for Kumiko's PageRank

Since Kumiko's blog is a relatively young blog, even though it has 770 links from 483 blogs, I doubt that it has enough number of high PageRank sites pointing to it.

So my prediction is Kumiko' blog will have a PageRank of 3 (three).


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